The Ingham officially wraps up the Sydney carnival on Saturday with a wide-open feature.
Plenty of big fields for Randwick and hot weather expected so the track will be very dry. They should be running some pretty quick times from the front and with that in mind, my best comes up in Race 6.
I'mintowin has just had the two starts in Australia but looks quite smart, winning well over 1500m first up and then only going down narrowly over 1850m at Newcastle second up.
He led there and looked to have his chance with Wineglass Bay just overhauling him late, but he did start $2.20 there and I think he clearly has more upside than anything in this field.
He only narrowly improved his rating from 100 to 102 but now third up, I think he's ready to go on with it and the big positive is getting Tim Clark aboard. Not that Bayliss did anything wrong last time, but having TC on the marked leader for G Waterhouse & A Bott is always a positive.
While there are a few here that rate within a length or so, I think I'mintowin, having just had eight starts and two for Waterhouse & Bott, has the credentials to improve past these. I will preface by saying the early price is likely to change- Foxy Cleopatra is all but confirmed for Ballarat and Excelleration could also come out. Bide your time and wait until race day to bet.
For the value play I'm going to The Ingham and looking to play a couple. The main form is through The Gong but that didn't actually rate that highly with Detonator Jack running to 111.
He's run to almost the same rating in his past three starts now which is no better than quite a few in this field, and the two that make some appeal are Rustic Steel and Waterford.
Rustic Steel tried hard last week running to a new peak of 115. He's won on the quick backup before and this looks a real set play for him, getting to the Randwick mile on the week backup. I'm confident he turns the tables on Phearson at a mile, he just needs to jump cleanly and hold a spot three back the fence.
Waterford is impossible to like, or rather his racing pattern and tactics are, but the market has finally had enough of him and we're getting a big price. He struggled in The Gong on the heavy ground but still wasn't all that bad, again coming home well, meets the winner 2.5kg better at the weights and his career peak rating came at Randwick with Tommy Berry on.
The biggest thing though is that the blinkers go on for the first time. Waller isn't actually profitable (0.73 ROI) with that gear change first time over his career but if there's any horse that needs sharpening it's Waterford.
Bet of the day: Race 6 #9 I'mintowin at $4.40
Value plays: Race 7 #8 Rustic Steel at $13 and #18 Waterford at $16