Some big names returned on Saturday and for the most part, didn’t disappoint.
Flemington
Imperatriz didn't need to be at her best to win the Group 1 Lightning Stakes (1000m) on Saturday but it mattered not, edging out Private Eye in a very slowly run affair, over two seconds outside Black Caviar's track record.
The time, and therefore margins, make it a tricky race to get a confident handle on. I don't think anyone is doubting the two best horses ran the exacta, and Espiona rattling home as she did only muddles things a bit more.
121 is the rating we have for Imperatriz, the same number she ran to win the Champions Sprint at the end of the Spring and a few pounds off her best runs at Moonee Valley,
In terms of recent Lightning winners, she's around average, keeping in mind that the Lightning is one of the top few sprint races in the world.
She sits ahead of recent female winners Coolangatta and In Her Time (both 118) and around the likes of Gytrash (123), while Nature Strip and Home Affairs both ran to 126.
Private Eye's connections certainly won't be running scared of her though, thinking they'll be better suited over further (although you could argue Imperatriz might be as well), and it sets up a ripping rematch in the T J Smith on Private Eye's home deck.
Speaking of Espiona, a Timeform rating of 118 here is a new peak for her on that scale, and makes her an interesting proposition in the Newmarket.
She profiles similarly to September Run in 2021 who resumed with a similarly slashing run in the Lightning behind Nature Strip, running to 119+ and starting $2.75 favourite in the Newmarket but struggling.
She was three at the time while Espiona is now five and she'll be close to favourite in the Newmarket. I'd be holding off at this stage- she won't drop in weight all that much and while I don't think the three-year-olds are much good, Saturday's Oakleigh Plate will give us a bit more to think about it.
Guineas Picture
Riff Rocket returned with a bang in the C S Hayes, running right up to his 115 peak he ran when winning the VRC Derby- something not many horses do.
His rating of 115+ in the Derby was equal to the likes of Warning and Extra Brut, ahead of Manzoice and Johnny Get Angry but behind Hitotsu in the past five years.
Of those horses, their rating dropped by an average of nearly 18 pounds at their first run of their next preparation. Only Hitotsu, who resumed in, and won the Australian Guineas, improved on his rating.
It was noted post-race that Riff Rocket became the first horse since the remarkable Mahogany in 1993/94 to win the Derby/Hayes double and they'll be hard pressed to turn the tables on him in the Australian Guineas.
Mahogany himself would win the Australian Guineas as a 4/5 favourite ($1.80) having won over 1000m on resumption off a Derby win- something I doubt we'll ever see again.
The Rosehill Guineas could be shaping up as one of the races of the Autumn however, if Riff Rocket, Militarize and Tom Kitten all end up there.
Militarize actually ran a slightly better rating than Riff Rocket did behind Fangirl (who has run very, very well to win the Apollo- just below her King Charles peak but better than her win in the Winx first up last prep).
There's only about a length between Riff Rocket, Militarize and Tom Kitten, with Riff Rocket actually the lowest, but he should go into the Australian Guineas as something like a $2.50 favourite in my book. He's now rated higher at his past two starts over 2500m and 1400m than anything he'll face and has more scope to improve than most of them.
