All the numbers you need for the great race.
The Group 1 Melbourne Cup (3200m) for 2025 is run at Flemington on Tuesday.
24 horses under handicap conditions with varying formlines makes for difficult tipping.
See all the numbers needed to make your selection choices easier:
Note: This is not an exact science.
AGE
4 - FURTHUR ✅
4YOs won three in a row from 2017 to 2019. Two of those (Cross Counter and Rekindling) were Northern Hemisphere 3YOs racing in Aus as 4YOs. FURTHUR is exactly that.
5 - MEYDAAN, HALF YOURS, PARCHMENT PARTY, ROYAL SUPREMACY ✅
5YOs have won two of the last three including Knight’s Choice and Gold Trip.
6 - AL RIFFA, PRESAGE NOCTURNE, MIDDLE EARTH, LAND LEGEND, TORRANZINO, VALIANT KING ✅
6YOs have won six of the past 15. Big tick if you’re six.
7 - BUCKAROO, FLATTEN THE CURVE, CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD, MORE FELONS, ATHABASCAN, GOODIE TWO SHOES, RIVER OF STARS 👍 7YOs have had two winners in the last 15 years. Without A Fight the most recent in 2023.
8 - VAUBAN, CHEVALIER ROSE, ABSURDE, ONESMOOTHOPERATOR ❌
8YOs have won just once since 1938. That was Twilight Payment in 2020.
9 - ARAPAHO, SMOKIN’ ROMANS ❌❌ 9YOs have never won the Melbourne Cup.
AVERAGE AGE OF LAST 15 WINNERS: 5.6
NUMBER
6 & 3 - PRESAGE NOCTURNE & ARAPAHO ✅
Single digit numbers have produced four of the past five winners. They have been 1, 3, 4 and 6. Single digits have also produced eight of the last 15. 6 has won twice, 3 has also won twice
1, 4, 5 & 8 - AL RIFFA, VAUBAN, CHEVALIER ROSE & MEYDAAN ✅
5 and 4 have won, 8 has also won once, and so has 1.
11, 14, 17 & 19 - LAND LEGEND, HALF YOURS, FURTHUR & ATHABASCAN ✅
Four numbers between 10 and 20 have won, including 11, 14, 17 & 19.
22 & 23 - ROYAL SUPREMACY & TORRANZINO ✅
No.23 has won twice in the past seven years, claiming back-to-back Cups in 2018 and 2019. Prior tonal, Rekindling won wearing no.22. It was a good three years for the higher digits.
AVERAGE NUMBER OF LAST 15 WINNERS: 11
BARRIER
DOUBLE DIGITS
13 - MIDDLE EARTH ✅👍
16, 17, 18 & 19 - LAND LEGEND, FLATTEN THE CURVE, TORRANZINO & AL RIFFA ✅
Teen barriers have produced six of the past 15 winners. 13 on two occasions, plus 16, 17, 18 & 19.
10, 11 & 21 - VALIANT KING, SMOKIN’ ROMANS & ROYAL SUPREMACY ✅
10, 11 & 21 have bobbed up once each since 2009.
SINGLE DIGITS
5 - CHEVALIER ROSE ✅✅
Single digit barriers have produced just five of the last 15. Remarkably, barrier 5 has produced three of those winners.
1 & 4 - ATHABASCAN & ABSURDE ✅
The other two single digits have been 1 and 4.
AVERAGE BARRIER OF LAST 15 WINNERS: 11.3
PRICE
DOUBLE DIGITS
Eight double digit prices have lobbed in recent history.
ABSURDE, FLATTEN THE CURVE, RIVER OF STARS ✅
The price range of $10-$19 has delivered five winners - $11 twice, $13, $15 and $18.
MEYDAAN, VAUBAN, ONESMOOTHOPERATOR & ROYAL SUPREMACY 👍
The price range of $20-$29 has delivered three winners - $20, $21 and $26.
SINGLE DIGITS
VALIANT KING & PRESAGE NOCTURNE ✅
HALF YOURS, AL RIFFA & BUCKAROO 👍
There has been five single digit winners in the last 15 years, but only two in the past 10. $8/$8.5 has lobbed three times, $7 and $9 once.
LONG SHOTS
$91 - $101 We’ve had two massive winners in Knight’s Choice last year at $91 and Prince Of Penzance at $101 back in 2015. Athabascan is the longest priced runner currently at $81.
Those two anomalies aside, the winner comes in the price range from $7 to $26 at an AVERAGE WINNING PRICE OF: $13.5
WEIGHT
Horses with 52kg or less have won five of the past 15.
Horses with 54.5kg or less have won nine of the past 15. But the 54-54.5kg range hasn’t won since Dunaden in 2011.
VALIANT KING, TORRANZINO, ROYAL SUPREMACY, RIVER OF STARS, GOODIE TWO SHOES, ATHABASCAN, PARCHMENT PARTY, FURTHUR, ONESMOOTHOPERATOR, MORE FELONS, HALF YOURS & CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD ✅
The 51kg to 53kg weight range has five winners.
BUCKAROO, ARAPAHO, VAUBAN, CHEVALIER ROSE & PRESAGE NOCTURNE ✅
Horses carrying 55kg to 57.5kg have won six of the past 15.
AL RIFFA ❌
No horse has ever carried 59kg to win.
AVERAGE WEIGHT OF LAST 15 WINNERS: 54.1kg
JOCKEY
AL RIFFA ✅
Mark Zahra won two in a row on imports Gold Trip (2022) and Without Fight (2023). He rides UK raider Al Riffa.
ROYAL SUPREMACY ✅
Robbie Dolan saluted at huge odds on Knight’s Choice last year. He rides Royal Supremacy for the Maher stable.
MEYDAAN ✅
James McDonald has one Cup to his name, aboard Verry Elleegant in 2021.He is on another raider in Meydaan.
VALIANT KING ✅
Jye McNeil led from go to whoa on Twilight Payment in 2020. He partners Valiant King.
BUCKAROO ✅
Craig Williams landed the 2018 Cup on Vow And Declare. He gets the ride on Buckaroo.
ABSURDE ✅
Kerrin McEvoy has three Cup triumphs to speak of. Back in 2000 with Brew, before two in three years with Almandin (2016) and Cross Counter (2018). He’s on Absurde who he rode into fifth last year.
VAUBAN ✅
Blake Shinn won at the age of just 21 on Viewed for Bart Cummings in 2008. He rides Vauban.
TRAINER
MIDDLE EARTH, SMOKIN’ ROMANS & ROYAL SUPREMACY ✅
Ciaron Maher (alongside former co-trainer David Eustace) landed the 2022 Cup with Gold Trip. He has three runners - Middle Earth, Smokin’ Romans and Royal Supremacy.
LAND LEGEND, MORE FELONS, RIVER OF STARS & VALIANT KING ✅
Chris Waller won the race with Verry Elleegant in 2021. He saddles up Land Legend, More Felons, River Of Stars and Valiant King.
AL RIFFA & GOODIE TWO SHOES ✅
Joseph O’Brien has won twice with Twilight Payment in 2020 and Rekindling in 2017. He has a strong hadn’t with Al Riffa and Goodie Two Shoes.
VAUBAN ✅
Gai Waterhouse has won once with Fiorente in 2013. She and co-trainer Adrian Bott have Vauban for the first time after he ran outside the top 10 twice in the care of Willie Mullins.
LEAD-UP RACE
2400-2500m top 5 - PRESAGE NOCTURNE, HALF YOURS, ONESMOOTHOPERATOR, ATHABASCAN, RIVER OF STARS, ROYAL SUPREMACY, TORRANZINO, VALIANT KING ✅
10 of the past 15 winners ran in a 2400 or 2500m race prior to winning the Cup. All 10 finished in the top five.
Cox Plate - BUCKAROO ✅
Four of the past 15 winners came through the Cox Plate, including two of the last four.
Lead-up note
There have been only four last-start winners in the last 15 years who have gone on to win the Cup. Two of those happened back in 2010 and 2011.
There are six last-start winners in this year's field - Al Riffa, Flatten The Curve, Half Yours, Onesmoothoperator, Parchment Party and Torranzino.
Horses who win the Melbourne Cup have not finished further back than 6.1 lengths off the winner of their previous start.
INTERESTING NOTES
Only 1 mare - Verry Elleegant - has won since Makybe Diva’s three-peat from 2003-2005.
11 of the past 15 winners are horses who were bred outside of Australasia. Only Knight’s Choice and Vow And Declare were Aussie-bred, while Verry Elleegant and Prince Of Penzance were bred in New Zealand.
Remarkably, 8 of the past 11 winners have raced in June in the lead-up.
OVERALL
ROYAL SUPREMACY - ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅👍
VALIANT KING - ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
AL RIFFA - ✅✅✅✅✅👍
PRESAGE NOCTURNE & TORRANZINO - ✅✅✅✅✅
HALF YOURS, VAUBAN, RIVER OF STARS & ATHABASCAN - ✅✅✅✅👍
CHEVALIER ROSE & LAND LEGEND - ✅✅✅✅
What are you prepared to lose today? Set a deposit limit. For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
