The build-up to the great race is gathering pace.
Forty horses remain in contention for this year’s Lexus Melbourne Cup, as the build-up to the race that stops the nation® gathers pace.
Last year, history was made when Knight's Choice claimed the Cup, the first Queensland-trained horse to do so. It was a rare local triumph in a race that has grown increasingly international since Vintage Crop’s ground-breaking victory in 1993.
In the past two decades, seven winners have been prepared offshore, while Northern Hemisphere breeding has dominated, producing 16 of the last 25 Cup champions.
Now in its 165th edition, the Lexus Melbourne Cup has expanded its golden ticket lineup with two new ballot-exempt races: the Group 3 Geelong Cup (2400m) and the Group 2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m).
They join an already diverse set of qualifiers that includes England’s Ebor Handicap (2816m) and the Grade 3 Belmont Gold Cup (2816m) in New York at Saratoga complimenting the Australian qualifiers—the Listed Lexus Roy Higgins (2600m), the Listed Lexus Andrew Ramsden (2800m), the Group 3 Lexus Bart Cummings (2500m), the Group 3 Lexus Archer Stakes (2500m), the Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m), and the Group 1 Cox Plate (2040m).
The field boasts a strong international presence, yet last year showed that Australian-bred, locally trained runners remain a force to be reckoned with.
With 40 horses remaining in this year's $10 million Group 1 Lexus Melbourne Cup (3200m), we take a look at some of the contenders.
HALF YOURS
WHY HE CAN WIN: He’s in superb form and even though he’s been given a two kilos penalty he will only carry 53kg.
WHY HE CAN’T: He has never been over a trip longer than 2400m.
VALIANT KING
WHY HE CAN WIN: He’s in top form and well-suited for 3200m. Chris Waller has won one Melbourne Cup and is eager to add another.
WHY HE CAN’T: A wet track or a slowly run Melbourne Cup won’t help.
ONESMOOTHOPERATOR
WHY HE CAN WIN: He’s a winner over 3300m, so he can comfortably run the distance. He received a one-kilo penalty for winning the Moonee Valley Gold Cup but will only carry 53kg.
WHY HE CAN’T: Is he good enough? He’s also following a similar path to last year when he failed.
TORRANZINO
WHY HE CAN WIN: He’s in form, he’s tough, and he carries a lightweight. He’s had the longest, most searching lead-up into the race.
WHY HE CAN’T: Lacks class and remains untested over the distance.
BUCKAROO
WHY HE CAN WIN: Is there a better form line than the Cox Plate? He can run the distance out as he showed last year.
WHY HE CAN’T: He will carry 57kg. He has a habit of not getting there in the big races.
PARCHMENT PARTY
WHY HE CAN WIN: The big-striding American should relish the wide-open spaces of Flemington and seems to really enjoy the marathon distances, winning his last two starts over 2816 metres.
WHY HE CAN’T: It's a long way to come and almost all of his form is on dirt. It's an amazing training performance to get him here, to win would be something else.
AL RIFFA
WHY HE CAN WIN: He oozes class. Joseph O’Brien knows what he’s doing, and he wouldn’t be in Melbourne unless he believed the horse could handle the big weight. With Mark Zahra in the saddle, he has every chance.
WHY HE CAN’T: History states that carrying 59kg is a significant challenge.
ABSURDE
WHY HE CAN WIN: He’ll enjoy the extra distance, and Mullins thinks he will have benefited from the Caulfield Cup run, which could make the difference after two strong Lexus Melbourne Cup performances.
WHY HE CAN’T: There’s a familiar pattern to his three runs in Melbourne over his career. Each has been solid, but there have been excuses. Is he being held up for runs because he’s not used to racing in such tight fields, and could this be a problem he’ll face again?
PRESAGE NOCTURNE
WHY HE CAN WIN: He’s a dyed-in-the-wool stayer who will relish the trip and has the correct European form lines, not to mention his eye-catching Australian debut in the Caulfield Cup.
WHY HE CAN’T: Will they stay with the French jockey Stephanie Pasquer? Will his weight of 55.5kg catch him out in a handicap?
VAUBAN
WHY HE CAN WIN: He’s improved and acclimatised since joining the Waterhouse/Bott stable late last year.
WHY HE CAN’T: He needs to improve on his last two Lexus Melbourne Cup efforts to feature in this year's race.
RIVER OF STARS
WHY SHE CAN WIN: She’s a well-performed French mare in her second preparation with Chris Waller and appears to have improved. She will also carry only 51.5kg.
WHY SHE CAN’T: She had all the favours in the Caulfield Cup, so her finishing position may have been misleading.
MEYDAAN
WHY HE CAN WIN: He finished well in the Caulfield Cup, and the Giavellotto formline remains strong.
WHY HE CAN’T: He’s untried over the distance, and his class could be a query.
FURTHUR
WHY HE CAN WIN: He’s going to carry a lightweight and will be suited by the distance. Andrew Balding wouldn’t bring him here on a whim.
WHY HE CAN’T: Too inexperienced and untested in the class.
CHEVALIER ROSE
WHY HE CAN WIN: His best form would see him right in the finish, as it’s good enough to win.
WHY HE CAN’T: He’s a veteran stallion who has lost form.
Originally written by Michael Manley and published at VRC.com.au.
