A few things line up for the 3YO colt.
It could be a good year to tackle the Cox Plate with a three-year-old.
Just nine horses will step out at Moonee Valley this Saturday in what some have described as a less than vintage edition of Australia’s premier weight-for-age race.
Team Hawkes saddles up Nepotism as the sole three-year-old in this year’s field and given the perceived lack of elite quality, he has to be considered a serious chance.
The Brutal colt has seemingly underperformed this preparation, finishing ninth in the Group 2 Run To The Rose, eighth (of nine) in the Group 1 Golden Rose and then seventh in the Caulfield Guineas last time out.
But it was that run which suggests to co-trainer Wayne Hawkes that perhaps he can figure in the finish over 2040m at The Valley.
“For those that haven’t seen Nepotism’s (Guineas) run, it was a little bit tragic,” Hawkes said on SEN’s Whateley.
“I know the Godolphin horse (Observer), they reckon he should have just won.
“Where it gives more kudos (to Nepotism) is we had the fastest 800, 600 and 400 of the race and he’s still trying to get out.
“At the 300 he was getting checked and Blake Shinn sat up and said ‘this is just a barrier trial’. My brother (Michael) said ‘a very expensive barrier trial brother’. I said ‘I didn’t ride him’, but it wasn’t Blake’s fault, he just didn’t have the luck.”
Look for Nepotism in the green and gold below:
LIKE FATHER LIKE SON ☀️
— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) October 11, 2025
Autumn Boy wins a dramatic Caulfield Guineas, joining his sire The Autumn Sun as a Guineas Champion! Damian Lane and Chris Waller go back-to-back in the 3YO Classic 🤝 pic.twitter.com/XztL6fOBNU
Hawkes insists that Nepotism, who won the Group 1 Champagne Stakes at Randwick in April, is not just making up the numbers on Saturday.
With Zac Lloyd in the saddle and carrying just 49.5kgs, Nepotism can boot up from barrier 3 and sit near the speed before making his intentions clear when they swarm at the school.
“He’s done tremendously well, people know that we don’t run them for the sake of running them. We can go and get Cox Plate tickets without having a runner,” Hawkes added.
“He’s not there to make up the numbers, that’s for sure and certain.”
Depth aside, Cox Plate favourite Via Sistina ($2.30 with Sportsbet) is not at her best of late. The same can be said for Treasurethe Moment ($6.50) and Aeliana ($8), who are two runners in single figures along with Antino ($3.80).
At $21 right now, there could be worse wagers to have than on Nepotism.
“You wouldn’t believe that Via is not in career-best form. You wouldn’t believe that Treasurethe Moment is not going as good as what she was. And then you’ve lost Sir Delius,” Hawkes said of the race’s attrition.
“If we had have gone back three months ago we would have thought the Cox Plate would shape as the most unbelievable race. Johnny O’Neill’s horse Light Infantry Man ($46) is number one, and no disrespect, he’s won $3.9 million - but he’s going to lead out the Cox Plate field.
“But it’s going to be so hard to win and I might not win it - I probably won’t - but gee whiz, for nine horses I thought we would have had a much better quality field. And a couple of those runners aren’t at their top.”
The last three-year-old to win the Cox Plate was pre-race maiden Shamus Award in 2013. He jumped from gate 3, carried 49.5kg, had a staring price of $21 and was ridden by Chad Schofield, who just so happens to be Lloyd’s cousin.
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