Search

Simon Thomas' race-by-race Newcastle preview - 11th May 2024

Racing And Sports form analyst Simon Thomas provides his race-by-race Newcastle preview, thanks to tab.com.au.

TAVI TIME winning the NZB KURT FEARNLEY LEGEND MILE BENCHMARK 78 HANDICAP
TAVI TIME winning the NZB KURT FEARNLEY LEGEND MILE BENCHMARK 78 HANDICAP Picture: Steve Hart

Newcastle plays host this Saturday to a quality 10 race card, headed by the Gosford Cup, Takeover Target Stakes and The Coast. Thanks to tab.com.au, we've provided our selections for ALL 10 races, including a $9.50 chance in the Takeover Target.

Meanwhile, tab.com.au punters can get the money early in the day with an exciting two-year-old. Read on for our suggested plays! 

Race 1 – Gosford IT 2YO Handicap (1200m) @ 11.15am

Imperial Force (1) promising Snitzel colt resuming. Created a big impression at second race start as fav when a dominant 4 len winner over 1250m at Canterbury on April 17. Not asked to do much in a recent trial and will prove hard to hold out. Pisces (4) well supported on resumption when disappointing slightly to finish fourth over 1100m at Rosehill on April 27. Strips fitter now and looks great each way value out to the 1200m. Point And Shoot (7) drifted back on debut before charging late with an eye catching third over 1100m at Rosehill on April 27. Returned good figures on that occasion and has the upside to take this out. Sovereign Hill (3) resumes from a lengthy spell after showing blistering speed on debut when a slick winner over 1000m at Warwick Farm on October 11 last year. Since fitted with three trials and will give them something to catch.

Tip: Imperial Force to win again @ $3.30 with TAB*

Race 2 – Midway Handicap (1200m) @ 11.50am

Navy Blood (7) underrated colt returning from a 62-day let-up. Covered ground from the wide draw when a tough fourth in the LR Canberra Guineas over 1400m on March 10. Since fitted with two searching trials and undefeated at this track. Looks great value at his current quote. Sumo Star (17) trip suits and desperate for a change of luck. Resumed with a fast finishing third over 1100m at Rosehill in this grade on April 27. Stanley rides again with the claim and will prove hard to stop. Eye Pea Oh (8) handy mare with a good record over this course and distance. Near her top now after powering late when fourth over 1100m at Rosehill two weeks ago. Look for her charging late from the sticky draw. Silvanito (5) big ask second-up in the heavy (8) conditions when a plugging ninth over 1400m at Randwick in this company on April 20. Improver on his home track.

Tip: Navy Blood each way @ $10 with TAB*

Race 3 – TAB Highway Handicap (1200m) @ 12.25pm

Cool Duke (12) boom Frosted four-year-old gelding yet to taste defeat in three runs on heavy tracks. Up sharply in class today after gapping his rivals again when scoring by 2.25 lens over 1305m at Tuncurry on April 18. Looks to have further improvement and can win again. Tanglewood (6) handy gelding with two wins from six starts. Warmed up late on resumption when second over 1100m at Rosehill on April 27. Goes just as well second-up and looking for the 1200m now. Lubrication (1) Matt Dunn-trained gelding with a ton of ability. Comes here at his top after swooping late when a big winner 1200m at Doomben three-and-a-half weeks ago. Has sound each way prospects. Fuld's Doubt (17) has come back much stronger this prep winning two of her three runs. Returned good figures in much easier company when winning as fav over 1100m at Scone on April 16. In leading country stable and can go to the next level.

Tip: Cool Duke each way @ $6 with TAB*

Race 4 – Toohey's New Bm78 Hcp (2200m) @ 1pm

Anderson Bridge (11) has a sense of timing fifth-up. Showed enough late in the heavy (9) going when sixth in the G3 Frank Packer Plate at Randwick on April 20. This much easier and will take holding out. Desperado (3) getting better with age and looks in for a good prep. Won well two back at Caulfield before powering late with a gritty second over 2000m at Mornington on April 20. Expecting him to race a little closer from the draw. Our Maryanne (8) racing well and gets in light with the 3kg claim. Sat on the speed with the 58kg when a tough fifth over 2400m at Randwick Kensington on April 25. Sure to be strong late. Fay's Angels (5) underrated mare racing in career best form. Back in trip when rounded them up effortlessly to score by 3.5 lens over 1800m at Randwick Kensington on April 25. Has genuine top-three prospects.

Tip: Anderson Bridge each way @ $14 with TAB*

Race 5 – Signarama Erina/Gosford Bm72 Hcp (1600m) @ 1.35pm

Dances With Hooves (13) promising Scone-trained filly who won two-in-a-row before jumping in grade when a tiring eighth over 2400m in the G1 ATC Australian Oaks at Randwick on April 13. Since fitted with a recent 1000m trial win at Scone on May 3. Hard to beat in this company. Scarlet Oak (9) former New Zealand filly who resumed with a fighting second over 1400m at Randwick in the G3 James Carr on April 20. Back in grade and the extra trip suits. Green Shadows (2) has fitness on his side third-up and looks placed to advantage in this grade with the 3kg claim. Taken back from the sticky gate and far from disgraced when seventh over 1500m at Rosehill on April 27. Handles the conditions and sure to be strong on the line. Farnborough (1) four-year-old import having his first run for the Bjorn Baker stable. Won by a big space over 1609m at Leopardstown six-and-a-half months ago on a heavy track. Not asked to do much in two recent trials and market moves must be monitored.

Tip: Dances With Hooves each way @ $14 with TAB*

GOLDMAN winning the Lexus Roy Higgins
GOLDMAN winning the Lexus Roy Higgins Picture: Martin King / Sportpix

Race 6 – Buterin L'Estrange Gosford Gold Cup (2200m) @ 2.10pm

Goldman (4) smart stayer who resumed from a lengthy break with a courageous on-pace second over 2000m in the G3 JRA  Plate at Randwick on April 20. Handles all conditions and his second-up record is just as strong. Gets the right run and will prove hard to catch. Hezashocka (9) looks ready to peak fourth-up after turning in three encouraging runs this time in. Came from near last on the turn in the heavy (9) going when third in the G3 JRA Plate over 2000m at latest. Can race closer here from the better draw. Future History (5) genuine stayer sent north for this after giving his all with the 60kg when fifth in the LR Mornington Cup over 2400m on April 20. Racing pattern suits here with the drop in weight. Go close. Bois D'Argent (3) hard fit now and was stiff not to win this race last year. Failed to finish off in the heavy going when fourth over 2000m at Randwick on April 20. Worthy of serious consideration and the chances don't end there!

Tip: Goldman to win @ $3.80 with TAB*

Race 7 – De Bortoli Wines Takeover Target Stakes (1200m) @ 2.45pm

Victorian entire Grand Impact (7) gets the right conditions to bounce back to form today. Had mixed fortunes in two runs back and go on his dominant victory in the G3 Blue Sapphire in the heavy (10) going last October when assessing his chances. Semillion (16) unlucky gelding holding his form well. Came out hard from the wide draw when a fighting second at Caulfield over 1200m in the VGold Sprint on April 27. Well placed from the inside draw. Go close. Ballroom Bella (12) up sharply in class when loomed strongly before finding one better when second over this trip in the G2 Sapphire Stakes at Randwick on April 13. Ran fourth in a recent trial at Rosehill on May 2. One of the leading chances. Wategos (14) underrated gelding who returned from a lengthy break with a sound fifth over 1100m at Rosehill on April 27. Has a solid second-up record and can take this out. The race doesn't end there!

Tip: Box Quinella 7,12,14 & 16 with TAB*

Race 8 – The Coast (1600m) @ 3.20pm

Tavi Time (9) undefeated in three attempts at this trip and should get the right tempo today. Drifted back early and strong through the line from the wide draw when fifth over 1400m in the Provincial Championships Final at Randwick on April 13. Drops sharply in weight and looks up to this tougher assignment. Will prove hard to hold out on his home track. Premise (10) smart mare undefeated at this track. Holding her form well after going under narrowly when second over 1800m at Rosehill on April 27. Go close. Iknowastar  (3) tough miler fitter after finishing in the minor money at his last two outings. Wet track credentials hardly excite but expected to be in this for a long way. Magnaspin (4) sat on the speed with the 59kg when a tiring sixth over 2000m at Caulfield in the VGold Heath on April 27. Looks primed for this with the 54kg on a rain affected track. Value runner.

Tip: Tavi Time to win @ $3.20 with TAB*

Race 9 – Triple M Thunder Thousand Bm78 Hcp (900m) @ 4pm

Jedibeel (3) was well fancied on resumption when a slick winner over 1000m at Randwick Kensington in easier grade on April 25. Schiller sticks and no surprise to see him go through his grades this preparation. Storm The Ramparts (7) stalked the speed on resumption but no match late when second to JEDIBEEL over 1000m at Randwick Kensington. Goes just as well second-up and gets map favours from the good draw. Can turn the tables here. Our Bellagio Miss (4) returns from a 49 day let-up. Drifted back and outclassed when 13th in the G3 B/Day Card over 1200m at Rosehill on March 23. This is her pet trip and can turn it around in the conditions. Markwell Dreamer (12) holding his form well in easier company and drops 12kg for this after finishing a close up second over this trip at Muswellbrook in BM66 grade on May 3. Goes into the exotics.

Tip: Jedibeel to win @ $4.40 with TAB*

Race 10 – Railway Hotel Bm78 Hcp (1200m) @ 4.40pm

Heuristic (12) comes out of a solid form race when resuming to finish fourth over 1000m at Randwick Kensington behind Jedibeel on April 25. Drops sharply in weight with the claim and looks hard to hold out. Disneck (11) bounced back to form when swooped late from last on the turn with a gritty 0.5 len win over 1200m at Rosehill on April 27. Has always shown ability and expected to play a leading role again. Salisano (8) above average mare who returned with a sound third over 1100m at Canterbury on April 17. Looks to have come back even stronger this prep and undefeated in both second-up runs. Go close. Able Willie (9) fourth-up today after catching the eye late when seventh over 1300m at Rosehill on April 27. Ford keeps the ride and he should get the right race tempo.

Tip: Heuristic each way @ $10 with TAB*

GOSFORD COAST DAY AT NEWCASTLE

Best of the day: Race 1 #1 Imperial Force at $3.30 with TAB*

Each way play: Race 4 #11 Anderson Bridge at $14 with TAB*

*Odds correct at 3.25pm, 9/5/24