Adam White is RSN's sports betting expert, helping us all become smarter sports-punters, with the latest sports-betting news, and punting plays. Adam's specialities - AFL, cricket, golf and tennis. As well as feeding Whitey's Winners, Adam is live on RSN every weekday, giving sports-punters the latest on Nadia Horne's "Winners" program. If you miss Adam on-air, you'll find his podcasts under "Winners" on the RSN site.
Mondays: The Monday Matinee - All the hits and misses from the weekend and the opening odds for the upcoming weekend.
Tuesdays: Traffic Light Tuesday - A look at the futures markets. Who is flying and is green? Which team is on caution? And which team can we risk in red?
Wednesdays: The Midweek Footy Mail - Adam's early look at prices and news on every game to keep you ahead of the play, and help you find the best possible odds.
Thursdays: The Golf Preview - Looking for the best betting plays in all the PGA Tour and European Tour events, before the first players hit off.
Fridays: The AFL Betting Preview - Footy's complete betting preview.
PLUS
More tennis - Daily betting posts during every Grand Slam, every Masters tournament for the men, and every premier event for women.
More cricket - Fresh posts every day during every big events, including the Ashes Tour in England, and June's Champions Trophy.
Collingwood (1.55) v Sydney (2.45) - Friday night @ the MCG
I really like Collingwood in this match. The Magpies are clearly my best bet of the week. Collingwood has already been well backed this week, but I expect there will be more money to come and the 1.55 won't survive. Even the -9.5 point line for Collingwood to cover looks very enticing. That was a really important win last Saturday night for Collingwood and will give the team a lot of confidence. I still maintain Sydney's form is an issue. We are now eight weeks into the season and there are still too many key players down on form and the forward line is a major concern. Sydney's MCG record is poor if you take away last year's Grand Final. It's because Sydney loses it's forward structure on the bigger ground at the MCG and struggles to score even if the Swans have midfield control. I am very keen to bet against Sydney away from the SCG against the good teams at the moment.
Early mail:
Collingwood: The Magpies didn't get any new injuries out of the game last week. Ben Johnson played well in his return from injury last week in the VFL and will be considered. Alan Didak was not as good last week in the VFL, but still contributed. Jackson Paine kicked five goals, which is encouraging, but he's still likely to need more good performances at the lower level before being considered. The Magpies are unlikely to make too many changes. Dale Thomas had surgery on his ankle yesterday and is hopeful of returning in August.
Sydney: The Swans will get Martin Mattner back after being a late withdrawal against Fremantle with a minor hip problem. The Swans have a few players struggling for form at the top end, but also a few of the fringe players are not taking their opportunity, so John Longmire may be forced to fiddle with the team a little this week. Rhys Shaw is still a couple of weeks away.
The TAB says: 80 per cent of the money this week has been on Collingwood.
Port Adelaide (5.75) v Geelong (1.14) - Saturday @ AAMI Stadium
Port Adelaide is starting to struggle. It's now three losses in a row. The young players that were good for the Power early in the season are looking tired, some key senior players have been out of touch for a month and the inconsistency within match remains a concern. The Cats were flat last week after being 'up' for seven weeks. While the Cats are still down a few key personnel they will have too much class for Port Adelaide and should win easily. Look at throwing Geelong into multis over 15.5 points in the tri bet option or over 24.5 points.
Early mail:
Port Adelaide: The Power have lost Dominic Cassisi for a few weeks with a hamstring injury and has already ruled out small forward Jack Neade who will be rested against the Cats. Jasper Pittard will miss another two weeks with his ongoing battle with a hip injury. Daniel Stewart must be close to promotion after another impressive performance in the SANFL with three goals and nine marks. Matt Thomas might finally get his chance this week after gathering another big haul of possessions in the SANFL. Jack Hombsch is another that is likely to be considered as a key defender.
Geelong: The Cats remains hopeful Steve Johnson will return this week after being a late withdrawal against Collingwood because of a knock to the calf. Paul Chapman has been ruled out again with his hamstring battles. The Cats have lost Billie Smedts for a couple of weeks with an ankle injury sustained in the Collingwood loss. George Burbury has already been told he will become Geelong's 13th debutant since the 2011 premiership success.
The TAB says: It's been one-way betting traffic on this match with 95 percent of money for the Cats.
GWS (17) vs West Coast (1.01) - Saturday @ Skoda Stadium
I'm worried about the Giants again in this match. If all of West Coast's forward line plays in this match, it could get ugly. The Giants simply won't be able to stop the likes of Josh Kennedy, Jack Darling, Dean Cox and Nic Naitanui. Throw in Mark LeCras and Josh Hill, how can the Giants stop West Coast from kicking 25 goals? The line currently sits at -70.5 points for West Coast to cover. I don't think that figure will last if the weather holds up.
Early mail:
GWS: The Giants didn't pick up any new injury concerns against Hawthorn last week in Launceston but expect a few changes as Kevin Sheedy continues to rotate his squad. Matthew Buntine looks certain to play his first game of the year and Dom Tyson is very close to also playing his first match of the season. Adam Treloar, Will Hoskin-Elliott and Curtly Hampton are among the others to come under close consideration.
West Coast: The Eagles have got more injury headaches. Sharrod Wellingham will miss around six weeks after injuring his other ankle against North Melbourne, while Will Scholfield will be out of action for a month with a compound dislocation to a finger. Andrew Embley will play against the Giants after having a hit-out in the WAFL last week. Mitch Brown should replace Schofield and Ashton Hams is also on the edge. It's unclear whether the Eagles will rest some players.
The TAB says: We haven't had any interest in this match.
St Kilda (1.18) vs Western Bulldogs (4.90) - Saturday twilight @ Etihad Stadium
St Kilda should be short, but I'm not sure the Saints should be quite that short. The Dogs will be much better suited against a team like St Kilda that is unlikely to expose them for outside speed and skill. I would have the Saints around 1.25 to 1.30. St Kilda's form has been sound this year and deserves to be a little better than the current 2-6 record. St Kilda's forward options should be the difference against the Dogs. The Dogs will struggle to hold the many options St Kilda has - and will struggle to kick a competitive enough score at the other end. But I don't expect it to be a blowout because I do think the Dogs should be able to match it with the Saints through the midfield.
Early mail:
Western Bulldogs: One positive note to come out the Dogs' loss to Gold Coast was there wasn't any new injury concerns for a change. But after losing to the Suns, Brendan McCartney is still likely to make some changes. Mitch Wallis responded after being dropped last week with 29 possessions in the VFL, while Lachie Hunter and Nathan Hrovat can't be too far away from their first senior games after excellent performances in the VFL.
St Kilda: The Saints got through the Adelaide game unscathed. Brodie Murdoch and Josh Saunders are close to selection and Clinton Jones has to also be considered after being an emergency last week. Trent Dennis-Lane kicked another four goals for Sandringham and Tom Lee took ten marks for the day in one of his best games for the year at VFL level. Justin Koschitzke is available for selection after serving his two-game suspension.
The TAB says: There has been some good support for St Kilda with one punter having a big bet of $30,000 at $1.20
Brisbane (2.60) vs Carlton (1.40) - Saturday night @ the Gabba
I am tipping Brisbane in this match, even before the team changes are announced. I remain unsure of Carlton's form and I think the Lions represent excellent value at the Gabba on Saturday night. If Brisbane can bring the same competitiveness and intensity which saw the Lions upset Essendon, Brisbane can win again. Carlton still looks low on confidence with its ball movement and the team remains inconsistent within games. The Lions could easily pressure Carlton into mistakes and I can see the Blues starting to doubt themselves. But Brisbane must start well. Remember, the Lions are a much better team at the Gabba and did beat the Blues in the NAB Cup Grand Final because their intensity and pressure was very good. The Lions are a great value option. If you're not brave enough to take them as an outright play, look at the line bet at around +15.5 points, or even handicap margins at plus 24.5 or plus 39.5 points for multis.
Early mail:
Brisbane: The Lions are unlikely to change a winning formula too much, but they have to make at least two changes with the suspension to Daniel Merrett and Justin Clarke. Matt Maguire is set to play his first game since the opening weekend which helps in defense. Patrick Karnezis was very impressive in the NEAFL last weekend, while Jesse O'Brien, Sam Docherty and Josh Green are some of the others under consideration.
Carlton: The Blues will test Bryce Gibbs and Andrew Carrazzo again later in the week. Gibbs has missed three weeks with a hamstring and Carrazzo has had a similar stint on the sidelines with a calf problem. Chris Yarran has already been ruled out with his hamstring injury. Jarrad Waite was subbed out last week but he will definitely play against the Lions claim the Blues. Shaun Hampson dominated in the VFL last weekend for the Northern Blues while the usual suspects of Jeremy Laidler, Nick Duigan and Dylan Buckley continue to play well in the VFL.
The TAB says: Money has been going 2:1 Brisbane but we have also had some strong support for the Blues in multis.
Richmond (2.10) vs Essendon (1.75) - Saturday night @ the MCG
I can't pick this game. I think it's a legitimate 50-50 game. Consequently, the Tigers are a fraction over the odds for me. The Bombers have lost their momentum and haven't played well since ANZAC Day. It's another big test for Richmond against a team currently above them on the ladder. Essendon's key to victory will be whether the forward line can get on top of Richmond's average defense. But Richmond's midfield is flying and always worries Essendon. I just don't know about this one.
Early mail:
Richmond: The Tigers will be bolstered by the return of Ivan Maric (ankle) and Chris Newman (groin) for the Dreamtime game. Dylan Grimes has been ruled out for a further eight weeks with his foot injury and Ricky Petterd will miss another couple of weeks with his calf injury. A week after being elevated from the rookie list, Sam Lonergan had 20 possessions and eleven clearances for Coburg in the VFL. He's an outside chance of playing against his old club.
Essendon: The Bombers maintain Michael Hibberd will play against Richmond despite slightly injuring his adductor against the Lions. Michael Hurley will be assessed later in the week with his concussion. Courtenay Dempsey will definitely play after serving his one-week internal suspension to go with his week out with an ankle problem. Joe Daniher kicked another four goals in the VFL and keeps knocking on the door, while Leroy Jetta, Kyle Hardingham and Travis Colyer all played well through the midfield and across half back to keep the pressure on some underperforming senior players.
The TAB says: The punters want Essendon in this match at this point in the week. The money has been going 3:1 Essendon's way.
Hawthorn (1.01) vs Gold Coast (17) - Sunday @ the MCG
As good as the Suns have been over the last two weeks, I still think the line needs to be higher than -65.5 for Hawthorn to cover which is currently on offer. The Hawks got frustrated last week with the Giants crowding the contest and lost interest last week. But the Suns play a more open style of football that will suit Hawthorn who will do its damage from stoppages and on the counter-attack. The only question yet to be known is whether Hawthorn will rest anyone. Gold Coast will have all sorts of problems with Hawthorn's forward line. If all the key components play.
Early mail:
Hawthorn: The Hawks are cruising. They are playing their cards close to their chest, so it's still unclear if any players will be rested this week against the Suns. Josh Gibson has been cleared to return and Brad Hill is also ready to return after being rested last week. Shane Savage and Jed Anderson both kicked three goals from the midfield for Box Hill and are very keen to get some games at Hawthorn against the Suns and Melbourne over the next couple of weeks.
Gold Coast: The Suns have already ruled out Charlie Dixon (ankle) and Karmichael Hunt (hamstring) for the game against Hawthorn and we know about Zac Smith and his season-ending knee injury. Daniel Gorringe and Tom Nicholls are in a battle to replace Smith as the ruckman. Tom Murphy is available after missing last week with concussion.
The TAB says: The punters have ignored this match to this point.
North Melbourne (1.50) vs Adelaide (2.60) - Sunday @ Etihad Stadium
The Kangaroos have won the last three matches against Adelaide at Etihad Stadium, but I still give Adelaide a very good chance in this match. I would have North Melbourne favourite. But much closer to the 1.60-1.70 mark. The Crows have played very well for three weeks now. The midfield is in very good form and will worry the Kangaroos. The question will be whether Adelaide can score enough against North Melbourne, but this should be very close. I really like Adelaide's form. The Kangaroos have been competitive all year, but their lack of consistency is hurting them and they are likely to get nervous again if it's a tight finish. This is a massive game for both teams to stay in touch. It's a legitimate eight-point game and both teams can win it. The Crows are currently very good value.
Early mail:
North Melbourne: The Kangaroos are unlikely to make too many changes despite losing narrowly to West Coast last week. Levi Greenwood, Jordan Gysberts and Will Sierakowski were amongst the better players at VFL last week should Brad Scott want to make any minor alterations to the team.
Adelaide: The Crows have finally got some momentum in their game at the moment so there's unlikely to be too many changes made for the clash with North Melbourne. Graham Johncock and Ian Callinan continue to dominate the SANFL punctuated by multiple goals most weeks. Jarred Petrenko, Brad Crocuh and Brodie Martin are the best of the midfielders at the lower level, all with genuine claims to be promoted.
The TAB says: There has been big support for North Melbourne in this match with 95 percent of the money on the Kangaroos.
Fremantle (1.01) vs Melbourne (17) - Sunday twilight @ Subiaco
It's obviously just a question on the margin. I think the line is about right at -60.5 points. The Dockers still have a lot of key players out, particularly up forward, so Fremantle will struggle to blow Melbourne away. But the Dockers will dominate the midfield, so around the ten goal mark is a realistic margin. There's not a lot else to add other than the obvious fact Melbourne will struggle to score against Ross Lyon's team.
Early mail:
Fremantle: The Dockers have been hit with another key injury with Michael Walters the latest casualty. He will miss up to a month with a serious ankle sprain. Stephen Hill has also been ruled out for another week with his quad issues. Both Hill and Matthew Pavlich are expected to be available for selection next week. Hayden Crozier is available after being a late withdrawal last week with groin tightness.
Melbourne: The Demons will get Jack Watts back this week after missing three weeks with a hamstring strain. Jimmy Toumpas will miss a couple of weeks after injuring his ankle against the Tigers last week. Sam Blease, Tom Couch have played well for a few weeks now for Casey and are pushing their claims. Cameron Pedersen was Casey's best last week with close to 30 possessions.
The TAB says: No surprise. There is no interest here.
AFL Traffic Light Tuesday (UPDATED 21/5/2013)
